Book Project

A Distributional Theory of National Interest: What States (Don't) Fight For and Why

Issue value, commonly known as the “v-term," plays a central role in many international theories. The value of an issue influences whether states choose to escalate conflict, which states prevail in war, and whether leaders are rewarded for escalating conflict or punished for backing down. Yet we know surprisingly little about why issues take on the value that they do in the first place. In fact, states have often displayed puzzling behaviors when it comes to issue value—they commonly fight over barren lands and uninhabitable islands while not fighting over other issue areas or lands with more evident benefits. So what becomes understood by states and their citizens as important national interests worth fighting for and why? Why do these perceptions of national interest often fail to reflect an issue’s objective material value? 

I argue that domestic distributional consequences play an important role in determining what becomes understood as important national interests worth fighting for. Issues without clear economic value, such as barren lands, are more likely to be perceived as national interests because they do not benefit any single domestic group. Since who benefits is unclear, politicians have an easier time framing such issues as benefiting the entire nation. In contrast, issues with specific economic benefits are more likely to be seen as helping select domestic groups, which makes it harder for leaders to persuasively frame them as representing broad national interests. I support my argument using three original survey experiments, newly geocoded data of territorial claims spanning 172 years, qualitative case studies, and text analysis of political rhetoric. 

My book project also contains new data on territorial claims in South America between 1830-2001 (some selected maps below). For more information about the coding of the data, please see my paper "Resources and Territorial Claims: Domestic Opposition to Resource-Rich Territory." Please contact me if you wish to use this data. I also welcome any thoughts and suggestions.